New data shows wildfire activity has declined, contrary to popular belief

Recent findings from the University of Arizona reveal a surprising trend in wildfire activity, where tree-ring data indicate a decline in wildfires rather than the commonly believed increase. The study, published on February 17, 2025, challenges the prevailing notion that wildfires are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. By analyzing centuries-old tree-ring records, researchers found that modern forest management and fire suppression policies have significantly impacted wildfire patterns. This nuanced understanding highlights the complexity of the ‘fire paradox,’ where reducing fires in the short term can lead to more severe conditions in the future. The study suggests re-evaluating current forest management strategies to balance safety with ecological health. These insights provide a critical perspective for policymakers and environmentalists aiming to navigate the challenges of wildfire management in a changing climate.

University of Arizona News